Hermine Impacts Outlook For Long Island
LONG ISLAND TO SEE EFFECTS FROM HERMINE BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING
Hermine To Impact East Coast Virginia to Southern New England
PRIORITY OF IMPACT
WINDS TO GALE FORCE
At this point I think there is enough out there for me to lay out what I think is important with this and what we need to emphasize. First off I think the biggest risk here is COASTAL FLOODING since all the models pretty much agree with the notion that Hermine in whatever form it is in, be it tropical storm or post tropical storm (nor’easter) or something in between will be moving to somewhere east of Delaware or Southern New Jersey and South of Long Island and sit out there beginning Sunday and lasting into the middle of next week. All the global weather models show this.
The maps above show storm surge forecast which include tide heights through Sunday afternoon for Long Island. They indicate a surge of 3 feet with a surge of up to 5 feet in Long Island Sound. This does not include the impact of waves.
The second issue down the list of priorities is wind. I think gale force winds along the immediate coast (on the beaches) are likely and gusts on the order of 40 to 50 mph are not impossible on and off into Tuesday. Just inland the wind will become less of a factor.
The last priority in all this is rain where I think the impact at the moment looks to minimal. Even the most aggressive of the models keeps the heaviest rains of 4 inches or more well to the south. Other models show far less. So from the standpoint of rain, unless some band of rain comes in from off the ocean and sits over you for awhile, or unless this system decides to barrel northward into the coastline for some reason, I do not believe rain will be a big issue here.
Latest satellite loops show Hermine moving right along to the north northeast on schedule. As far as practical weather conditions are concerned, there are no problems today..sunshine nice dry with a breeze and highs in the 70s to near 80. No issues Saturday other than sunshine giving way to arriving clouds and highs in the 70s. Rain and wind will being to move into Long Island during Sunday morning I believe though models are all over the place with this. Again the biggest issue here for Long Island I believe will be Coastal Flooding because we will see this storm offshore for several days with at least 6 high tide cycles to work through.
We will update this outlook as the day progresses and throughout the weekend.
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