Long Island Hurricane Watch & Storm Surge Watch Posted Tropical Storm Watch Nassau County
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Long Island Hurricane Watch & Storm Surge Watch Posted Tropical Storm Watch Nassau County
Long Island is under a Hurricane Watch and a Storm Surge Watch as Tropical Storm Henri continues its slow march northwest and now turning northward. Ahead of all this today we have lots of clouds as an upper air trough over the Middle Atlantic states crawls eastward. We are likely to sit in these clouds all day today and some showers from that trough are pushing northeastward. They are holding together on the radar so look for some showers and a few downpours this afternoon into this evening.
SATELLITE
The rain showers to the south on the radar were forecast to dry up during this afternoon but they seem to be holding on better than indicated by weather models overnight and this morning so we will leave that chance in there for the rest of the day. Warm and muggy conditions will continue with temperatures in the 70s to around 80.
WEATHER RADAR
Saturday looks to be warm and tropical with lots of clouds. We will throw in the chance for a downpour or a thunderstorm The leading edge of Henri which will likely be a category 1 hurricane at this point, will be about 250 miles south of Long Island by late Saturday afternoon.
The first rains should arrive early Sunday morning. This is going to be relatively quickly lasting about 6 to 8 hours. Weather conditions are going to vary depending on landfall. The latest NAM model crosses Henri over the Twin Forks on a north northwest course around midday. The heaviest rain will be to the west of the track and the strongest winds to the east. Bear in mind that we are still seeing a wide spread in landfall possibilities as the National Hurricane Center cone of uncertainty indicates.
Once the center passes to the north the rains will move north with it so strong gusty winds will continue at least for awhile until the storm center moves far enough north. In terms of specifics as far as the winds are concerned here is the wind gust forecast for 11am Sunday including the wind barns which show direction
Bear in mind that these numbers are estimates and probably too low since they are based on an offshore track to the east. If the track is further east or west it will change the wind profile in a big way. It is very important to monitor the situation closely as Henri approaches for any subtle deviation in the track. The other issue is coastal flooding as we have a full moon. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is forecast with the highest surge along and east of the track. The Storm Surge Watch extends well to the west of the forecast storm center track and here to, a change in the track will impact the surge. For now the forecast is based on a track with a landfall over Eastern Suffolk County meaning that south shore West Suffolk and Nassau would be on the lower end of the surge at least in theory.
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