Long Island Weather Miserable Weekend
Long Island Weather Miserable Weekend
Long Island weather is utterly miserable this weekend. We have the spinning upper low in the lower Great Lakes and the onshore flow continuing this afternoon. This means we will be socked in with low clouds light rain and drizzle all day long and into tonight. We are also seeing some hints of rain on the radar in the ocean to our south and the NAM model does seem to want to bring up a couple of waves of steady rain later this afternoon and tonight. Let’s hope that it happens so that at least we are using this opportunity to ease the drought a bit. There does not appear to be much hope for improvement here until perhaps Monday. By then the onshore flow relaxes a bit and we could see some brightening of skies or perhaps a few breaks of sun.
It makes the forecast for this afternoon and tonight pretty easy with cloudy skies and occasional rain or just drizzle with highs just in the 60s both this afternoon and Sunday.
LONG ISLAND WEATHER NAM RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
Rainfall forecast on the NAM model is for an additional half inch or so into Monday morning. The rainfall from this situation has been rather disappointing to say the least.
LATEST ON HURRICANE MATTHEW
Hurricane Matthew remains a powerful hurricane but it has weakened a bit this morning as the eye goes through a replacement cycle. This means that the eye essential rebuilds itself after expending all the available energy. It is sort of like refueling your car. Since models have been terrible with this regarding strength, it would not surprise me if we see another deepening cycle begin later today or tonight. Matthew is forecast to turn northward soon
You can see on the water vapor loop that the eye fades and then reappears in the last few frames. Also it looks like the motion is a little north of west or even west northwest now as it moves toward Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch is posted for Jamaica and now also posted for Haiti
...MATTHEW REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 73.4W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas. The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for that country. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for portions of eastern Cuba later today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 73.4 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west- northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday and toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti Sunday night and Monday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The latest minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft was 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Barranquilla. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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