Marginal Risk Severe Weather Long Island
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Marginal Risk Severe Weather Long Island
Marine Layer Again Is Key
Once again Long Island seems to be on the edge of a severe weather threat this afternoon but already this morning we can see a few things working against this. First is the fact that all the strong dynamics seem to be to the north of Long Island. The second thing is that the marine layer and warm front have not cleared the area yet.
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS FARMINGDALE CLOUDY 78 75 90 S13 29.93F ISLIP CLOUDY 76 73 91 S12 29.93F SHIRLEY LGT RAIN 76 73 91 S10 29.95F RIVERHEAD N/A 77 73 88 SW2 29.93F WESTHAMPTON CLOUDY 76 71 85 S13G20 29.96F SOUTHAMPTON N/A 73 72 94 S10 29.92S BRIDGEHAMPTON N/A 75 72 88 S5 29.82S EAST HAMPTON LGT RAIN 72 70 93 S6 29.96S MONTAUK POINT N/A 75 70 84 S7 29.98S
Looking at the temperatures and wind this morning the marine layer is here and the winds have not shifted to the southwest. Nor have the low clouds burned off to allow for some daytime heating. This is an ongoing problem. Usually this time of year the ocean is warm enough to be less destructive to thunderstorms but the pattern we are in seems to be preventing this. Sunshine is breaking through the clouds to the west where temperatures are climbing into the 80s. Daytime heating will be supportive there.
Latest radar loops are beginning to pick up on some showers developing in West Central Pennsylvanai and they seem to be moving eastward. The southern end of that line will be overhead so how that develops will also be important to what happens here later this afternoon.
Marginal Risk Severe Weather Long Island Radar Loops
The latest HRRR model forecast has Long Island on that southern end of the thunderstorm line which is much more active to the north and northeast through New England where the strongest dynamics exist for severe thunderstorms.
Marginal Risk Severe Weather Long Island HRRR Model Forecast
So at least for the rest of this morning into this afternoon we will see some breaks of sunshine through the clouds. Temperatures will climb into the 80s. Then we sit back and wait to see whether these thunderstorms hold together or not. Both the HRRR model and the NAM model take any thunderstorms and weaken them before they make it into Suffolk County.
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