Cloud cover overnight has prevented similar temperatures to Monday morning. Lows this morning are ranging through the 40s. Clouds will gradually give way to sun today. Enjoy the one seasonable day this week! Afternoon highs reach 60°, then slowly slip back down through the 50s as the week goes on. Other than a brief shower early this evening (as seen below on the HRRR model), weather will remain quiet through Friday.
That leaves the weekend. The current forecast is a perfect example of how weather systems thousands of miles away can directly affect our local weather.
WEATHER FROM AFAR
Major Hurricane Willa is a short while away from making landfall along the Mexican coast. As it moves inland from there it will rapidly weaken. However, the remnant moisture will continue on northeastward, eventually moving up into Texas and riding right along the Gulf of Mexico. It will grab some Gulf moisture as it then begins to redevelop over the southeastern US. From there, the system will emerge out into the Atlantic and move northward along the east coast as a Nor’easter.
STILL MANY VARIABLES
This will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Long Island over the weekend. Another issue that we will start honing in on in the next 48 hours is the threat for coastal flooding. The degrees of each of these is dependent on how a few factors. including timing, track, and how much strengthening takes place. A second piece over energy moving down from Canada over the lower 48 may phase with the redeveloping storm and aid in this process.
WHAT ABOUT SNOW?
As for the chance of snow, the models have relaxed on the idea of an all out snow storm inland. Although it is still likely, especially in the high elevations of the Catskills/Adirondacks/Berkshires, that wet snowflakes and wintry mixing will take place across parts of the northeast, it won’t be on Long Island. Nothing but chilly rain for us – even that alone will make for a miserable weekend. We need to turn our attention to the threat for wind and coastal flooding. As mentioned above, there is still uncertainty to the severity of each, but early indications suggest wind gusts of 40+ mph are likely, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding. Beach erosion is also a major factor with fall/winter/spring Nor’easters, one that doesn’t get noticed except by the off-season beach-goer.
Stay with me throughout the week as we bring you the latest on this developing situation.
Have a great Tuesday!