Snow Forecast Long Island 1-4 Inches

Snow Forecast Long Island 1-4 Inches

Snow Forecast Long Island 1-4 Inches

After reviewing weather models this morning I am putting up my snow forecast for Long Island. Confidence right now is moderate particular because the GFS model has become more robust with this first weather event and is in line for the most part with other models. I think there will be a general 1 to 4 inch snow fall beginning early Friday morning around 1-2am and lasting until mid or late morning Friday as it ends from west to east. HIghest amounts will be as you go east with 2 to 4 inches over the East End and 1 to 2 inches over Nassau County though there could be some locally higher amounts. The National Weather Service updated forecast is on the map below.

NEW YORK CITY AND VICINITY SNOW

I think there is room here for an upside surprise as low pressure develops to our south. These types of systems can fool forecasters as all the development will be occurring virtually overhead.

GFS MODEL SNOW FORECAST FOR FRIDAY

Weather models are backing off for the weekend. The European model was the last to cave and it is now further east. In reality there is only so much room in the atmosphere and if this first system is a more dominant feature, it will tend to suppress the second system. This has been the argument all along. The European model has consistently had a much more developed southern stream system., This appears not to be correct at this point. In any event we will see it turn very cold over the next several days. Temperatures this weekend by day will be hard pressed to get out of the 20s. Nighttime lows will be down in the low to mid teens. We will discuss this possibility more later today.