Good afternoon everyone! It has been a mostly cloudy day across Long Island, with some sunny shots over the last few hours. We will have one more dry day coming up tomorrow before things get busy.

A fairly weak storm system arriving Thursday night will start as snow across the area. It will be mainly light precipitation. My early call forecast is for a coating to an inch across the area. The snowfall either ending or changing over to rain stems the tide Friday morning. Further inland could see snowfall totals of 1-3″, especially in the higher elevations. Use caution on the roads Thursday night and Friday morning.

After a quiet day on Saturday, a second, more powerful storm will arrive Saturday night. Much like the first system tomorrow, it will begin as snow before changing over to rain as temperatures jump into the 40s by Sunday morning. The rain could be heavy at times during the day. Then temperatures will crash later in the day as the storm pulls away, quickly through the 30s and 20s and into the teens Sunday night as the coldest air of the season arrives. This ‘flash freeze’ could lead to black ice, making for some dangerous conditions as we head into MLK Day.

Now, this is the MOST LIKELY scenario at this time, but there could still be some changes. There are several models that have hinted at a more southerly storm track today. This would not only mean more snow for Long Island at the start Saturday night, but also for sleet, or worse, freezing rain on Sunday. Freezing rain is even more dangerous than regular standing rain that freezes, as it would coat everything instantaneously with an icy glaze. That spells havoc for drivers and power lines. Let’s hope that this does not occur.

It would also mean a heavy thump of snow for areas north and west of NYC. We’re talking 12″ or more. We are still more than 48 hours away, so tomorrow is when we are likely to have our final answer on this difficult storm track. As I said yesterday, regardless of what happens with this storm, get ready for a bone-chilling start to next week with wind chills in the single digits.    –Geoff

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