Another Night of Frosts & Freezes Plus Subtropical Storm Possibilities This Weekend
It is another cold night across the Northeast and that will produce another round of frosts and freezes. Frost Advisories are up for Suffolk County on Long Island as well as much of New Jersey and Connecticut. Freeze warnings take over inland and north as we head into upstate NY. We have a perfect set up for radiational cooling tonight with clear skies and little wind. That will send temperatures down into the lower 30s away from warmer urban settings. The satellite tonight shows hardly a cloud in the sky and the radars are nice and quiet.
Let’s move on to Thursday which will be a nice day at least at the start with sunshine though some clouds will roll in during the afternoon. Winds will start to come in from off the ocean from the south and then south southwest. Highs will be in the 50s along the immediate coast and then working their way up into the 60s inland.
A warm front will be setting up across Northern Pennsylvania to about Long Island and there could be a few scattered showers with that front Thursday night from there northeastward into Southern New England. This sets us up for a warm day Friday with some sunshine into the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid 70s near the coast and lower 80s inland especially from NYC south and west.
Also appearing on the map is disturbed weather in the Florida Straits to Southeast Florida east to the Bahamas. From this a subtropical depression or even a subtropical storm is likely to develop Friday and over the weekend. More on this in a moment. We have a cold front arriving Friday night and ahead of it some showers and thunderstorms are likely. The Storm Prediction Center has our area in a marginal risk for severe weather Friday evening.
Moving along to the weekend we see a rather complex scenario shaping up. Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days as high pressure builds down from New England creating an onshore flow here. The front stalls to our south across the Delmarva Peninsula back to Virginia. While this is going on we have the low off the Florida coast that is forecast to strengthen to a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center has a 70% chance of development of this system and it shows up well on the latest GFS model run.
Saturday we should see some sunshine and then more clouds as the day wears on. Highs will be in the cooler 60s to near 70 inland and 50s along the coast. Sunday the warm front moves northward and a cold front swings in from the west as low pressure drops in from the Great Lakes head heads southeast to the MId Atlantic coast. Some showers will pop up on Sunday and then more numerous showers or a thunderstorm are likely Sunday night into Monday morning.
The upper trough digs southeast from the Great Lakes which will either absorb the subtropical system or kick it out to the northeast as the GFS loop above shows. Getting kicked away to the northeast is the most likely scenario however the trough it self will spawn another non tropical low along the coast. Couple that with higher pressures to the northeast and you have the ingredients for a couple of miserable weather days Monday and Tuesday of next week with on and off rain and temperatures just in the 50s. Improvement may start to set in on Wednesday as winds turn more northerly but it may be a slow process with low pressure offshore and cloud issues near by. We may have to wait until Thursday or Friday of next week to see genuine improvement and warmer temperatures.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.