Long Island Rain Moving In
Long Island Rain Moving In
HRRR & NAM Model Views
Satellite and radar loops are all showing some rain is headed for Long Island. First off the leading edge of the rain to the south is not all that impressive. Most of that rain is light and I don’t think it will pose a big problem even if it comes in when fireworks begin at Jones Beach at 9:!5pm. By the time they are over some light rain will be starting up. It is the second area of rain that is forming to the west that is more impressive and could be he a solid rain produce if it holds together.
Long Island Rain Moving In Radar Loops
Now the last 2 runs of the HRRR model seem to be pointing some heavy rains toward Long Island late tonight into Tuesday morning on the order of 2 to 3 inches in some areas. Now I want to caution that this model has not worked well lately.
Long Island Rain Moving In HRRR Rainfall Forecast
Long Island Rain Moving In NAM Rainfall Forecast
The blue area indicates 1 inch plus rains while the pink areas are 2 to 3 inches which is being indicated for Nassau County and Western Suffolk. The NAM model has less though it shows heavier rains to the north of Long Island and less in New Jersey! Now below are 2 simulated forecast radars. One is the HRRR model and the other the NAM model for 7am Tuesday.
The HRRR radar is showing a very bullish rain scenario while the NAM while it shows rain is much less impressive with this system.
Since the HRRR model lately has not been good, we will lean to the nam idea which would suggests about an inch or so of rain for most areas with some locally higher amounts. Either way the rain will be welcomed and beneficial. But it does look like a wet morning commute.
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