Severe Weather Again This Evening
Tropical Storm Watch Likely Will Be Going Up This Evening
Weather in 5/Joe & Joe Weather Show Latest Podcast
Severe Weather Again This Evening Tropical Storm Watch Likely Going Up This Evening
First things first is another round of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has posted the second severe thunderstorm watch in 2 days and this one is in effect until 11pm Eastern Time. Long Island is included in the watch.
Temperatures right now are in the upper 80s and lower 90s as we continue to see ample sunshine and daytime heating continue. Thunderstorms are at least initially setting up a little further north at mid afternoon but we have a northwest flow aloft so those thunderstorms will gradually redevelop and shift southeastward going into this evening.
Like yesterday the main threat will be strong gusty winds in excess of 50 knots and there is the possibility of hail. The latest models indicate the main storm threat for Long Island will occur after 6 or 7 pm when the cold front nears and a weak wave develops and moves along it.
Once the storms are done the cold front will remain stalled leaving us in a very warm and humid air mass for Thursday. There is the chance for a shower or thunderstorm popping up otherwise Thursday will just be a muggy day with clouds and some with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Then attention turns south as Tropical Storm Elsa moves up the coast.
Tropical Storm Watches will likely go up this evening with the next advisory. The forecast track will bring the center of Elsa very close to Long Island Friday morning. The big overhanging question is an upper trough over the Great Lakes and whether Elsa responds to that by strengthening a bit as it approaches. That is a tough call at this point. This will be a 6 to 8 hour event. Rain will be on the order of up to 2 inches or so and there could be some localized flooding.
The period of time to watch will be from midnight Friday to noon Friday with the worst of it in the hours approaching daybreak until about 8 or 9am. Winds are a tougher call because that will depend on the track. If the low center passes to say NYC, we would be on the east side with likely less rain and more wind. If the center cuts Long Island in half then conditions will be different west of the low verses east. Also we don’t know how strong the low will be and if it doesn’t react to the upper trough over the Great Lakes, then we could see a weaker system that is more of a nuisance then anything else. These variables need more time for us to resolve and we have all day Thursday to figure that out. Once Elsa goes by to our north weather conditions should improve Friday though another shower or thunderstorm is possible in the evening. Then we move a head to a warm and humid weekend with only a slight chance for a pop up downpour or thunderstorm each afternoon.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.