A two-part storm system will make it a messy weekend for many folks. But Long Island may be spared the worst. Part 1 extends from the Carolinas down through Florida. Part 2 is a strong upper air disturbance currently situated over eastern Texas.

Clouds will dominate the sky on Friday, with perhaps at some spotty drizzle. It will be much milder, with highs reaching 50° this afternoon. Things remain relatively quiet until after midnight, but then showers will move in and last through about midday Saturday. This morning’s model runs indicate that the rain will be light to moderate, with the heaviest rain staying south of Long Island. Then, a nice break for much of the afternoon and evening. It will also reach 50° for the second day in a row.

Part 2 probably doesn’t get going until early Sunday morning. The rain with this could be heavy at times during the day Sunday. There are some indications that this storm could transfer it’s energy to a coastal low, amplifying the precipitation field and also sucking some colder air down from the north. This could lead to mixing with snow north and west of NYC, but for Long Island would just be chilly rain. It will be a chillier day with highs in the low 40s. A great day for indoor activities indeed!

Dry (and seasonable) weather returns on Monday, although their might not be much in the way of sunshine. That will be more abundant on Tuesday, but it will also be much colder and windy. Wind chills in the upper 20s can be expected. Looking ahead, the weather looks mostly quiet next week, with maybe a couple of clippers late in the week. Temperatures should average out around normal.  –Geoff

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