Winter Storm Watch Long Island
Winter Storm Watch Long Island
Long Island is under a Winter Storm Watch which is part of an area wide Winter Storm Watch that includes New York City and Coastal Connecticut. This snow threat will come in the heels of record high temperatures on Wednesday. I’ve raised my snow amounts for Long Island based on the late afternoon model runs which all are generous with liquid precipitation in the cold air. The fact that we are going from temperatures Wednesday in the 50s to near 60 to snow and temperatures in the 20s is nothing new and happens all the time. The sun angle and the so called warm ground are both non factors here.
I’ve raised estimates for Long Island to 8 inches or more as part of an area that extends back to New York City, Northeastern and Coastal New Jersey, Southern Westchester and Southeast Rockland Counties and Coastal Connecticut.
One of the models we want to watch closely is the Canadian RGEM model. This afternoon it painted a wrapped up intense storm to the south of Long Island and east of New Jersey coast. It likely represents the most extreme solution in that it would produce 1 foot plus snows for Long Island and near blizzard conditions. We aren’t forecasting this but we want to pay close attention to this model because it has a very good track record this winter. The dark blue most likely represents snow fall rates of several inches and hour as it is part of what is called the “comma” head. This is the most intense part of a cyclone and it has a signature comma shape on satellite pictures. The next model cycle will begin shortly and we will see whether other models trend in this direction. The latest National Weather Service snow forecast maps are below for our area and nearby.
NEW YORK CITY AND VICINITY SNOW
NEW YORK CITY & VICINITY ICE
NEW JERSEY & PARTS OF NE PA
