Blizzard Warning Western Suffolk & Nassau County
Winter Storm Warning Eastern Long Island
Coastal Flood Watch
This morning we see upgrades of watches over to warnings as the coastal storm is now imminent. For Long Island the forecast has become a bit more difficult with the storm tucked in to the coast a bit more on some but not all models. We will need to closely monitor this but for the moment we are gonig to assume there is going to be some change over to rain at some point for Central and Eastern Suffolk County but it may not happen in Western Suffolk or in Nassau..or even if it does it may not make a difference in total snow accumulations.
Even a slight shift of the low center by a few miles would push these numbers up or down in either direction so it will basically be a nip and tuck hour by hour assessment.
There are no weather issues today. Sunshine will give way to arriving clouds with highs reaching into the 30s. Snow should develop during the early morning hours sometime between 3am-5am and then from 11am-1pm we will be watching to see if we get a change to rain. It could snow very hard for those hours and snow accumulation rates could exceed several inches an hour before a changeover takes place.
Winds along the coast could gust to 50 to 60 mph during Tuesday as the storm center pulls away to the east. A change back to snow could happen before it all comes to an end Tuesday evening and weather conditions begin to improve Tuesday night into Wednesday.
National Weather Service snow forecasts are below.
NEW YORK CITY & VICINITY ICE
NEW JERSEY & PARTS OF NE PA
Strong winds will be an issue here during Monday as the storm center passes close to the East End of Long Island. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely and that could cause some tree damage and downing of power lines. Coastal flooding at high tide is going to be an issue with Sunday’s full moon. Spring tides are already running high and the addition of this noreaster introduces moderate coastal flooding at high tide Monday night and on Tuesday. 2 high tide cycles seem to be in play here.
..COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWER NEW YORK HARBOR. * TIDAL DEPARTURES...2 TO 3 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. * TIMING...AROUND THE TIME OF TUESDAY`S HIGH TIDES. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION. NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.
We will be monitoring weather model runs for clues on whether cold air will be more important and keeping precipitation mostly frozen. Here is my snow forecast map for Long Island for the moment at least. If there is no change to sleet or rain amounts will be higher.