Heatwave Winds Down
[brid video=”56254″ player=”6390″ title=”wednesday”]
Heatwave Winds Down
From the standpoint of heatwaves for Long Island quite frankly this one was a big yawn. Yes we saw days at or above 90 with one day in the mid 90s but nothing that has approached records or extremes. In fact depending on where you are the heatwave was broken on Monday over almost all of Suffolk County and the southern half of Nassau where temperatures never got above the middle 80s. For Islip the count now stands at 1 day after the 3 days of 90 degrees plus that began last Friday. Given that we will have more of a southwest wind today and Thursday, effectively the “heatwave” is over with.
For today Long Island sees sunshine and a slight increase in humidity with that ocean wind. Most highs will be in the 80s to near 90. No issues tonight or Thursday in my view with sunshine mixing with some clouds and again highs in the 80s to around 90.
HEATWAVE WINDS DOWN
SATELLITE LOOP
HEATWAVE WINDS DOWN
RADAR LOOP
Now comes Friday and the big question of a soaking rain. We need an all day soaking rain of at least 12 hours to have some real impact on the very dry conditions. The NAM, Canadian, and European Model all support this idea.
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HEATWAVE WINDS DOWN NAM MODEL FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING
NAM MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
In fact the NAM utterly clobbers Long Island 3 inches or more of rain. I am extremely cautious here. I can see how it can happen but the fact that the intensifying drought conditions continue, and that rain events continue to underperform, it is hard to want to believe this. The GFS model says no!
The GFS has a more suppressed look to it with everything going well south! This certainly lines up with how prior events have behaved. We will defer to later model runs for a better idea.
Longer term for the weekend it would appear Saturday will be dry but there are some indications that another shot of rain looms for later Sunday into Monday morning though again confidence on this continues to be low.
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