Hermine Long Island Impact
Hermine Long Island Impact
Coastal Areas Impacted
Satellite loops clearly show post tropical storm Hermine off the east. The satellite signature is indicative of a non tropical cyclone. It has a cold core look to it. That said it is a formidable storm with winds to hurricane force. The difference is that there are no core thunderstorms near the center. The strongest winds are located 100 miles or more from the circulation center rather than concentrated near the center of circulation. With all that said the impacts will be very much like a strong winter time noreaster. The good news is that barring a last minute shift there is not going to be a landfall. However the bad news is Hermine is trapped under a strong upper air vortex that has captured the cyclone and it has no where to move. There is nothing in the upper flow to kick it along in the normal west to east flow. Therefore where the center winds up is important. The closer to the coast it is, the greater chance you have of getting into the wind and rain. On the other hand the further northwest you are the less you will see.
Watch the radars on Sunday as the rain will more than likely be backing in from the east and not from the south or southwest. The way it looks at the moment the biggest issue will be coastal flooding. Where that center is at the time of high tide will determine the extent of any tidal surge. Sunday evening high tides and Monday mid morning high tides are the two critical tide cycles to pay attention to.
HERMINE LONG ISLAND IMPACT
Rains will begin in the afternoon over Eastern Long Island first and than back westward lasting into Monday morning before diminishing. Winds are likely to pick up to gale force and continue into Monday afternoon. The strongest winds will be over Eastern Long Island and along the south shore.
WINDS EAST GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEAST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
TIDES RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF FIRE ISLAND TO NEW YORK HARBOR, 5 TO 7 FEET IN LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON TO THE BRONX AND 3 TO 5 FEET EAST OF PORT JEFFERSON
RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES OR MORE EAST WITH LESS TO THE WEST
Right now based on the latest model runs I am painting what I believe to be the worst case scenario. We will update this outlook during the day Sunday and Sunday night. All of this will be dependent on the track of Hermine and how strong it is at the time it makes its nearest approach to the coast Sunday night into Monday. Again I want to emphasize that coastal flooding is the biggest issue.
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