Hurricane Hermine Long Island Forecast
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Hurricane Hermine Long Island Forecast
We thought it might be a good time to review what we think we can expect for Long Island with Hurricane Hermine. The Hurricane Hermine Long Island forecast is a difficult to figure. First off here is what we know.
Skies tonight will clear out and temperatures will cool into the low and mid 60s.
Friday will be Sunny and pleasant with highs in the upper 70s to near 80
Saturday we will start to see clouds move in as the onshore flow gets firmly established. We can say that no rain is forecast for Long Island for Saturday or Saturday night. It might get a bit breezy especially along the shore but nothing unmanageable.
Hurricane Hermine is obvious on the satellite in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. It is embedded in that long frontal zone that extends well out into the Atlantic. The alley way is open for this to track along and northwest of this taking Hermine, probably as a tropical storm to the North Carolina coast by Saturday evening.
Hurricane Hermine Long Island Forecast Sunday Monday
This is where it gets problematic. Global weather models are lining up with the tropical storm to stall out somewhere east of Delaware and South of Montauk on Sunday. No direct hit means no direct storm surge. However this doesn’t mean we won’t have coastal flooding. In fact the danger here is that with a strong tropical storm or hybrid system sitting in that position creates a long duration coastal flooding event beginning with the high tides Sunday and it could continue into Tuesday. This means there could be as many as 6 high tide cycles that cause coastal flooding. Add to that we have a new moon phase which will make tides even higher.
The National Hurricane Center’s tidal surge tool shows a large area of 3 ft surge covering all of Long Island with an area of 5 ft or higher for much of Long Island Sound. The surge extends all the way south to Delaware. Even if Long Island is on the edge of rain and wind, it will have to deal with moderate to possible serious coastal flooding.
Hurricane Hermine Long Island Forecast European Model Sunday 8am
Hurricane Hermine Long Island Forecast GFS Model Sunday 8am
There are still questions regarding track. The GFS model and the European model line up fairly well. Both models would cause winds of gale force with some gusts to 40 to 50 mph or more especially along the Long Island south shore. Needless to say stay in touch with all the latest weather information for Long Island right here.
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