Ida Flash Flood Watch Severe Weather Risk Long Island
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Ida Flash Flood Watch Severe Weather Risk Long Island
We have some rough weather ahead of us today as the remnants of Hurricane Ida makes its way northeastward. The track of the low will be to the west of Long Island and probably right along the I-95 corridor. This means that the heaviest rains will be west and north of Long Island however it also puts us in the warm sector and that leaves us in a zone of severe weather and elevated tornado risk.
The Storm Prediction Center has pushed the area of slight risk of severe weather northward however this also includes tornado risk of 5 percent. For this area this is a high number. It means there is a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point on Long Island. An even higher 10 percent risk lies just to our south in Central New Jersey.
SATELLITE
Weather radars are showing the lead rains are already here and some thunderstorms are popping up to our southwest and we could see a thunderstorm or two roll through into this afternoon. The roughest weather will be this evening and tonight.
WEATHER RADAR
WHAT TO EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
The track of the low center just to our west puts us in the warm sector. The rain that is around this morning will pivot northwest and this afternoon we probably won’t see much other than showery rains from time to time and the occasional thunderstorm. Things change this evening however as the low begins to strengthen and a cold front swings eastward.
After 7pm will be the worst of it as the low goes by tracking just to our north. Weather models are showing tremendous rains skimming Long Island but two squall lines of thunderstorms with heavy rains will be swinging east and moving through overnight. We will probably see 2 to 3 inches of rain from this with locally higher amounts but it will be with these squall lines that we will see the risk for severe thunderstorms and the risk for a few spin ups (tornadoes) as the lines go by. The last of it goes by between 4 and 5am and weather conditions will improve afterwards. It should be noted that widespread wind is not and issue today or tonight however when those thunderstorms come through, winds could gust over 50 mph locally. That could certainly take down trees and powerlines. Once Ida pulls away, a very nice cool dry air mass builds in and we will see leftover clouds giving way to sunshine Thursday. Highs will be in the lower 70s and the humidity will drop to very low levels. Friday and Saturday look like two beautiful days of sunshine with highs in the 70s and low humidity as we kick off the Labor Day holiday weekend.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
