Irma Showers Jose Update Rip Current Issues

Irma Jose Weekend Forecast

The remnant circulation of Irma is now spinning up into the Northeast and this is going to produce a warm and humid day with the threat for some downpours or possibly a thunderstorm. We actually had a little arm of showers move through yesterday afternoon well ahead of upper feature that was Hurricane Irma. Warm humid conditions will rule Thursday. Some breaks of sun are possible and then some downpours and thunderstorms will be running around especially this afternoon and evening. It won’t be a big deal as everything in the atmosphere seems to be moving along. Temperatures today will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s.

SATELLITE LOOP

REGIONAL RADAR

We are already seeing some showers running around this morning and moving northeastward though they are scattered in nature.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA

Weather conditions will begin to improve on Friday with clouds and some sunshine and perhaps one or two more stray showers with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The weekend looks good with warm conditions and sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. It might be a good beach weekend and it could also be the last one so take advantage.

RIP CURRENT ISSUES CONTINUE TODAY FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY

With Jose lurking around off the Southeast Coast we continue to see swells from the hurricane and that will go on through the weekend and through much of next week. Late season beach goers will be contending with this as will offshore boaters so exercise caution. Conditions seemed to have relaxed ever so slightly today as we do not have small craft advisories in effect but again caution is advised. Ocean conditions will worsen over the weekend and next week as Jose begins a northward move.

…HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING…

* LOCATIONS…OCEAN BEACHES OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* RIP CURRENT RISK…HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT…4 TO 5 FT.

* LIGHTNING RISK…LOW.

* TIMING…THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE…WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN
SANDBARS AND NEAR STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS…JETTIES…AND
PIERS. TALK TO LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH OFFICIALS TO LEARN ABOUT ANY
SURF HAZARDS AND HEED THEIR ADVICE. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND
POSTED SIGNS AND SWIM IN LIFE GUARDED AREAS.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT…RELAX AND
FLOAT…AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE…SWIM IN A
DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE…FACE THE
SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.

HURRICANE JOSE INCHING WESTWARD

MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH

There hasn’t been too much change in Hurricane Jose overnight as it moves toward the west. Jose is no threat to land through the weekend however it is producing rough surf up and down the East Coast and will continue to do so through much of next week. We will evaluate the impact of Jose on our weather later this morning as we look at where models are taking us with this. At least for now all of the hurricane track models show an out to sea solution though the pass will be relatively clouds. It should be noted that Jose may start to look more like a non tropical system as it moves northward which means that the rain shield will expand some to the west as will the wind field. We probably won’t know for sure about Jose until over the weekend.

..HURRICANE JOSE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.1N 66.5W
ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 510 MI…815 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 66.5 West. Jose is moving toward
the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with an
increase in forward speed is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the several
days, but Jose could weaken to a Tropical Storm by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.