Long Island Severe Weather Risk 4-8pm Strong Thunderstorms Possible
Long Island Severe Weather Risk 4-8pm Strong Thunderstorms Flash Flood Watch Nassau County Rip Current Risk Beaches
Over the last 5 years the forecasting of thunderstorms has been especially difficult since it seems that thunderstorms for the most part come to Long Island to die. It would seem given all the dynamics that we have going today in the atmosphere that this should be a solid severe thunderstorm threat. The Storm Prediction Center seems to think so with Long Island at a slight risk for severe weather. We can tell you that nothing much happens through mid afternoon other than it will be a very warm humid day with temperatures reaching the low and middle 80s. How much sun we get will determine how destabilized the atmosphere gets. Weather models show thunderstorms moving across Long Island roughly between 5pm and 8pm.
NAM MODEL FORECAST 6PM FORECAST JULY 17, 2018
The NAM model certainly paints a bullish picture for thunderstorms and actually shows them strengthening as the move from west to east. The HRRR model on the other hand has them weakening as they move across Long Island.
EASTERN SATELLITE LOOP
We are beginning to see some thunderstorms well to the northwest of the coast at the moment on the local radars. In the meantime if you head to the shore today be advised that there are rip current risks along the South Shore today into this evening so exercise caution. The ocean water temperatures are in the low and middle 70s and that is certainly inviting but swim only in safe areas patrolled by lifeguards.
Once these storms clear the coast weather conditions will improve for the rest of the week with low humidity and sunshine Wednesday through Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday and Friday. The weekend may bring some issues with an onshore flow developing (wind from the southeast) and low pressure with a cold front to the west and a warm front to the south. This will likely mean at the very least lots of clouds and eventually rounds of downpours. We will get more specific with this over the next few days.