Will Long Island See Thunderstorms Island Wide Tuesday

Tuesday brings a strong cold front to Long Island and the question is Will Long Island See Thunderstorms Island Wide Tuesday? Thunderstorms during this spring and summer have been few and far between especially in Suffolk County where there has been very little in the way of thunderstorm activity. Everything dynamically points to thunderstorms coming out of New Jersey Tuesday afternoon and holding together as they move through Tuesday late afternoon and evening from west to east. Of course the keys to this will be how much daytime heating will occur before that gets shut off in the early afternoon, and how much if any impact will the marine layer have. Ocean water temperatures continue to warm and this lessens the impact of the wind off the water. The model dynamics point to an unstable atmosphere. The dew points will be in the 70s which is very tropical and loaded. We have them in the forecast so we shall see what happens.

In the meantime what little pop up activity that developed this afternoon has been well inland north and west of the coast. I don’t expect anything to happen tonight other than very warm and humid conditions with lows in the low to mid 70s.

EASTERN SATELLITE LOOP

You can see some of the scattered pop up thunderstorms on the regional and local radars. These should all be gone by 8pm or so. Tuesday thunderstorms look to move through after 2 or 3pm and they should be done by 8pm or so. Once the cold front moves offshore, weather conditions improve quickly Tuesday night. Wednesday Thursday and Friday look for sunshine with temperatures in the warm low to mid 80s with low humidity.

Enjoy those days because we will see the upper air pattern take a wet turn over the weekend. Upper air winds will turn to the south and this could bring up moisture over the weekend and into next week. JOESTRADAMUS has more on this in his latest long range post.