Marine Layer Convection Killer
Marine Layer Convection Killer
Thunderstorms Evade Long Island
Downpours Possible Into Saturday Evening.
As usual on Long Island, if there is an east wind and a warm front to the west, thunderstorms have no chance. This played out yet again even though some models said otherwise. Take a look at the radar rainfall estimates from this afternoon’s severe weather. It really is a perfect picture of what happened in areas that spent the day in a northeast wind and temperatures in the 70s.
Marine Layer Convection Killer Rainfall Estimates
Marine Layer Convection Killer Profile of Marine Layer
We mentioned yesterday that a front was going to set up somewhere over us and how it set up would determine the shape of the severe weather that was forecast. West of that red line is where temperatures reached 90 degrees for the 3rd day in a row, at least in New Jersey. It was there where thunderstorms clustered up in Western Counties and 3 or more inches of rain fell. The marine layer east of the red line is where it stayed cool with a wind off the ocean. And when you watch the radar loops below you can see that it did a great job killing those thunderstorms as the moved east.
Marine Layer Convection Killer
Regional Radar
Marine Layer Convection Killer
Local Radar Loops
Watch what happens as the convection hits the coast. It just weakens and falls apart! Now upstream and to the north some other downpours and thunderstorms have developed but these seem to be moving more east than southeast. This leaves Long Island out of much of the rain at least so far.
Models do swing some of that northern rain southeast later tonight so we will keep it in the forecast though I would not expect any of this to be severe. The problem for Saturday is that the cold front coming east is going to take its time coming through which means lots of clouds and temperatures again in the 70s with the risk for some showers or maybe a brief thunderstorm at some point. It doesn’t rain all day but Saturday no longer looks as good as it did a few days ago.
Sunday brings in lower humidity and no worse than partly sunny skies. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The dry weather continues into Monday.
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