Severe Drought But Rain Moving In
Severe Drought But Rain Moving In
There is hope for an island wide rainfall for Long Island beginning late Sunday afternoon and lasting into Monday afternoon but I would caution that there has been a history of underperformance for months regarding rainfall. With deficits standing now at over a foot and a half of rain in some places, the drought situation is serious. Lakes and ponds all around the island are drying up and water levels remain exceptionally low. This is a long term issue that can’t be resolved with one rainfall. We need a long series of widespread rainfalls over a number of months.
The satellite loop shows the approaching cold front and it also shows the spinning low that was Tropical Storm Julia off the Southeast US coast. Julia is forecast to weaken to a remnant low by tonight. Thunderstorms have been firing up this morning but the strong wind shear aloft will probably rip them apart later today. We shall see. Its a shame because even a robust tropical depression could stand the chance of feeding some extra tropical moisture our way.
Severe Drought Continues Satellite Loop
Severe Drought Continues Radar Loop
The radars will be quiet today though you can see the beginnings of rain and thunderstorms approaching from the west. The present movement is more north northeast so they won’t get close to us until later Sunday. This afternoon will be nice with sunshine and some clouds. Temperatures will be in the 70s. Sunday look for a lot of clouds with temperatures in the 70s to near 80. Rain should hold off until later in the afternoon or evening. It could last into Monday afternoon before weather conditions improve Monday night and Tuesday.
...JULIA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 76.2W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 76.2 West. The depression is currently stationary. A northwestward drift is expected later today, followed by a slow northward motion on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Julia is expected to become a remnant low later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
The rainfall forecast from the newest run of the NAM model isn’t showing more than a half inch to an inch which is down from previous model runs. The National Weather Service forecast is a bit more robust for total rainfalls so let’s hope that it pans out.
Severe Drought Continues Rainfall Forecast Through Monday Evening
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