Rain Moving Toward Long Island
Rain Moving Toward Long Island But Severe Drought Continues
1 to 2 Inches Possible But Remaining Skeptical
How can I not be skeptical Yes we see rain moving toward Long Island but whether it is thunderstorms or a large area of rain, it always seems to find a way to fall apart before it gets here. This will be the only shot of rain we will see for the next 7 to 10 days if models are correct. Even if we get an inch or two of rain, most of it will run off and the severe drought conditions especially in Suffolk County will continue. If it does play out at least the rain is spread out over 12-18 hours which is better than a 12-18 minute thunderstorm
It is all beginning to show up on the satellite loop and the regional radar. There is nothing close by for this evening. Rain will not move in until well after midnight over Long Island. It probably develops from west to east between 2am and 4am and continues into Monday afternoon. The HRRR model does show a rather impressive line of thunderstorms coming through for the morning rush hour drive on Monday.
Given the horrible performance of the HRRR model overall, I remain dubious over the intensity being indicated. Weather models continue the rain into late Monday afternoon and still have some lingering showers into Tuesday morning. The rainfall forecast remains in the 1 to 2 inch rain and favoring the low side rather than the high side.
Rain looks to be evenly distributed for Nassau and Suffolk Counties including the East End where the rainfall deficits exceed 15 inches in some places. The rain will be moving out Tuesday morning followed by some sunshine and highs reaching 80 or so. Warm weather stays until the next cold from comes through late this week. That brings in a cool shot of air for next weekend.
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