Good morning. It’s another cold one out there. Lows were in the 20s earlier this morning, and will only reach the upper 30s this afternoon. Factor in the breeze, and it will feel even more frosty.

Expect mostly sunny skies today. A weak disturbance moving though early tonight will bring more clouds and a few snow showers. Skies will then clear overnight and sun will return tomorrow and last into the weekend. Unfortunately, temperatures will remain well below average.

Now, to the good stuff.

Right now, the chances of a late weekend/early week storm for Long Island are trending lower. But there’s still a little time for things to change. As we speak, energy #1 is moving on shore in Southern California. It will then soon join up with energy #2 over Mexico and redevelop into a powerful storm system.

Severe weather is expected over parts of Texas and the deep south, while heavy snow and ice are likely on the northern edge of the storm. Right now, the bullseye of that area look to be North Carolina and the Virginias. We have a lot of could air to the north over the greater part of the country, so any northward movement with this system will spell more snow for folks.

So where does the uncertainty come into play for us? Well there will be a large ridge of high pressure to across the northern tier of the country. As this storm moves eastward, it will try its best to push northward, but may ultimately be suppressed by that high. There is also no phasing with northern energy to help pull it north. There is a decent agreement among the computer models this morning that this will be the case. There is only a little bit of time left for things to drastically change, but if this trend continues into tomorrow, we may be able to breathe a sigh of relief (or disappointment if  you are a snow lover!)   Geoff

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