The long term upper air pattern for Long Island continues to favor cold air and cold weather. Sunshine will dominate on Friday, with temperatures back down into the 30s. It will be on the breezy side at times. Another weak cold front will arrive later today, bringing with it no precipitation. Once it passes through, temperatures will drop even further into Saturday morning (10s and 20s). Then, it is on to a dry stretch of weather that carries us into well into week.
As far as the storm chances for Sunday/Monday go, put the nail in the coffin; it will have to wait until next time. Indications the last few days were that the storm would stay south, and good agreement remains today. Any sudden shifts look unlikely at this point. Strong high pressure to the north will confine heavy snows to North Carolina and Virginia, especially in the higher elevations along the Appalachians. Before it arrives there, the storm will bring severe storms to parts of the deep south and icy conditions across the Mississippi Valley.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
Looking at the teleconnections going forward, would seem to suggest that a pattern change is coming. PNA trends downward towards neutral, while NAO, WPO and EPO all go positive. I do expect temperatures to moderate back to seasonable levels later next week, but nothing well above that. The EPO does eventually collapse rapidly around Christmas, and the weather models do bring a few weather systems through during that time frame, but it doesn’t appear to be anything major from a snow standpoint. That may have to wait until the end of the month or January. –Geoff