Another cold and quiet day across Long Island as we await the action later this week.
So let’s jump right ahead to Thursday as our first storm approaches. Right now we are right on the middle of the rain/snow line, but a start as snow for everyone is looking more promising due to the timing, as it arrives overnight. Then we could get a changeover to rain Friday morning. This is more of an “appetizer” storm as it packs a relatively small punch. The bigger of the two storms will be over the weekend.
So much like I spoke about yesterday, we have 3 scenarios. We are still closest to #2, but today’s trend has been towards #1, which would be all rain. If the center of the storm works that far north and west of Long Island, it will be nothing more than a soggy day. The track is going to be very dependent on two areas of low pressure, one in southern Canada and the other a Bermuda high. We did not deal with the latter this past weekend, and so the storm was suppressed south by the Canadian high. Now we may see a little bit of a ‘tug-o-war’ over the next several model runs. There is still plenty of time for this track to shift, so don’t put it in the books just yet!
What I am actually more worried about is the bitter cold air on the backside of this storm. As far as a brief changeover to a mix or snow, I think that will be negligible. But with frigid air pouring in behind it and temperatures crashing from the 50s to the 20s in a matter of a few hours, we could be looking at a flash freeze, and then black ice becomes a major concern as we head into Sunday night and Monday morning.
Sunday night/Monday morning temperatures will fall into the teens, and will barely get back to the 20s for Martin Luther King Day. And that’s not even taking into account the wind – it could feel like the single digits or lower!
So regardless of what happens with this storm, get ready for a bone-chilling start to next week. –Geoff
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