Winter Storm Watch Long Island Heavy Snow To Mixing To Snow Wednesday Night Thursday
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Winter Storm Watch Long Island Heavy Snow To Mixing To Snow Wednesday Night Thursday
Coastal Flood Watch For High Tide Flooding
Winter Storm Watch is up for Long Island and once again this area has the hardest forecast for anyone in the tri-state area. Very cold air will be wedging southward from Canada and that cold air is formidable. The high is not going away. This makes it tough to figure snow accumulations because of the possibility of mixing issues tomorrow night at least for awhile
We will use the forecast numbers above as a baseline case. We should get into a range of snow accumulations of 10 to 12 inches overall inland especially north of the Long Island expressway even if we do mix with sleet for a few hours. If it doesn’t we will probably go over that high end range and areas to the east and along the south shore will see some upside.
SATELLITE
REGIONAL RADAR
Meanwhile we have today into Wednesday and there are no issues today other than it is colder. We will have plenty of sunshine with a gusty wind for awhile. Temperatures today will be in the 30s. Then we are headed for a very cold night into Wednesday morning with clear skies. Morning lows will be in the teens to low 20s and it could get down to as low as 10 in the Pine Barrens if winds drop off to dead calm.
Snow won’t arrive until Wednesday evening around 7pm or so. The day will be quiet with increasing clouds. Highs will be just in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Then snow develops Wednesday evening and becomes heavy at times. We look for some mixing around midnight or so into the early morning hours.
Before the mixing takes place, there will be a burst of heavy snow lasting a couple of hours where snowfall rates could reach 2 or even 3 inches per hour. The NAM model above which is a sequence that starts with 1pm Wednesday on the first frame and 1pm on the second, shows that burst quite well moving through between 10pm and 1am. That may be the time that the bulk of the snow from this falls. After that a change to sleet and then back to snow before it ends from west to east Thursday morning. Temperatures Wednesday night will be tricky, probably holding in the lower 30s. It all winds down Thursday morning as the snow ends from west to east. Weather improves in the afternoon and our weather should stay quiet Friday and through the weekend.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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