Winter Storm Watch Long Island Thursday Snow Sleet And Perhaps Some Rain
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Winter Storm Watch Long Island Thursday Snow Sleet And Perhaps Some Rain
It seems like we have been under an advisory or a warning pretty much non stop for the last few weeks. Well here is the next one. Winter Storm Watch is back up for Nassau and Suffolk Counties as well as surrounding areas back to NYC and Connecticut. The watch is for Thursday and Thursday night when we will see snow. This could be another situation where we get into some heavy banding for a few hours producing 2 inch an hour snow rates.
There as the usual uncertainties at this stage including timing and whether warmer air sneaks in from off the ocean to change the snow over to sleet. It might even go to rain for a few hours overnight before ending as sleet or snow early Friday morning. For now my early call is for 3 to 6 inches. If the weather models remain robust overnight and Wednesday morning I could push the numbers up higher to 4 to 8 inches.
SATELLITE
We did manage a rare treat today as temperatures on Long Island briefly made into the 50s but now the northwest wind is blowing in cold air and by morning we should see lows in the lower 20s in most places. The wind will make it feel about 10 degrees colder.
F5 WEATHER RADARS
The bitter cold air from the arctic high is mostly to the west and south but some of that air in modified form will build in with high pressure on Wednesday. We should see sunshine most of the day but highs will only be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Then we cloud up Wednesday night with Thursday morning lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.
The NAM model remains the model with the hot hand and it is aggressive. It brings snow to Long Island Thursday morning between 7 and 10am and then it goes gangbusters with a band of heavy snow which shows up in the dark blue. Temperatures will remain in the 20s most of the day and then rise a bit Thursday evening. At this point we could go to sleet or possibly to some rain for a short time. Then it probably ends as snow or sleet early Friday morning. If the NAM continues on this robust course then it is likely that my numbers are too low and I will raise them later tomorrow if that is the case. Weather conditions will improve later in the day Friday setting us up for a cold dry weekend. The pattern we have been in for the last 3 weeks is breaking down. This is the last storm of the recent series that began at the end of Janaury. Next week will probably start with some rain showers on Monday. Most of next week will be quiet with moderating temperatures.
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