HRRR Model Rain Unimpressive
1st Area Weakening Second Area Overnight
Scattered Showers Sunday
Radar and satellite loops this afternoon are utterly unimpressive with the rain moving out of Maryland and Delaware and into Southern New Jersey. The area of rain has weakened and once again the over aggressive short range models like the NAM model did a horrible job than the global models. Even the short short range HRRR has been overdoing the rain for Long Island this afternoon and for tonight. When its done you wonder whether we will get a quarter of an inch out of this, Some parts of Suffolk county are shown to get absolutely nothing as the rain areas split in two. Low pressure develops offshore and moves away to the northeast taking the bulk of the energy with it.
What is left for Sunday will be clouds and scattered showers that can’t be left out of the forecast, but you wonder how much will make it here or stay to our west. Back to the first batch of rain, you can see the HRRR model below for 4am Sunday how precipitation splits in 2 with the surface development to the east and the upper low to the west. Then there is the rainfally which amounts to very little between now and the early morning hours.
HRRR Model Rain Unimpressive 4am Sunday Morning Surface
HRRR RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH 4AM SUNDAY
Sunday we will mention showers but given how things are lately where rain wind up drying up, you wonder whether things will turn out better all the way around. The chance for showers continues on Monday and Tuesday with another low offshore and the upper air storm sitting overhead.
As for the Preakness, the steady rains have ended but the radar still shows some leftover showers around. Post time for the Preakness is at 6:45pm. Expect track conditions to improve as long as heavy downpours avoid Pimlico.
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