Hurricane Matthew Hurricane Sandy Long Island
Hurricane Matthew Hurricane Sandy
Long Island Why The Two Hurricanes Are Different
REMINDER: JOE CIOFFI WILL BE AT THE HICKSVILLE LIBRARY ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 5TH AT 7:15PM
The reflexive comparisons between Hurricane Matthew and Hurricane Sandy have already begun so I thought it might be a very good idea at this point to talk about this issue and resolve a few misunderstandings that are very important to clear up. We still don’t know for sure that Hurricane Matthew is even coming to Long Island though latest model trends would certainly suggest that is the case.
First off let’s look at the tracks of the two storms. The most important part of the track is going to be off the east coast. Above is the map of tonight’s “spaghetti” plots which show the forecast track of Hurricane Matthew. Notice that the track takes the storm inside or west of 75 west. This is important because tidal surge issues from any landfalling hurricane would occur in the Carolinas or southward depending on if there is a landfall. From Virginia northward the track would be just offshore based on most of these models. This reduces tidal risk
Now look at the spaghetti plots from Hurricane Sandy. What made Sandy especially destructive was the fact that it came in from the southeast which resulted in the tidal surge being pushed from the Bahamas right into our shoreline. There was no prior land fall. This was a generational event since very few storms have ever tracked this way.
HURRICANE MATTHEW HURRICANE SANDY HIGH TIDES
This weekend marks the first quarter moon which puts us in a low tide cycle. Sandy came at a high tide cycle near a full moon and came in near the actually high tide. It was a deadly and damaging combination. Even if Hurricane Matthew were to come at high tide it would not cause the tidal flood to the extent that Hurricane Sandy did.
HURRICANE MATTHEW HURRICANE SANDY STRENGTH OF STORM
Both Hurricanes hit category 4 status and Matthew still is. However given the track of Matthew the chances of it being a hurricane stronger than a category 2 are very low. In fact it is quite possible that Hurricane Matthew will transition over to a post tropical storm or hurricane once it gets north of 35 degrees north due to the colder ocean water temperatures in the 60s and the interaction of Hurricane Matthew with an upper trough to the northwest. Sandy made a similar transition however it set a recod low pressure for a storm at this latitude because of the incredibly dynamic upper air pattern. The pattern we have here is much less dynamic. If this transition to a post tropical system takes place it would shift the heaviest rains to the west side of the center of low pressure. The result of this is that it might just behave like a winter type noreaster albeit a rather fierce one.
This is not to minimize Hurricane Matthew and its effects IF it threatens Long Island. We may not know that for sure for a few more days. But I think its important to realize that Hurricanes like Sandy are once in a generation type event. It is understandable that in everyone’s mind it is the “go to” storm when the word hurricane comes up. I just want to put it in perspective. You still will need to prepare if Hurricane Matthew is a threat but do so in a calm logical way. You should follow the recommendations of local officials if the time comes that any decision has to be made.
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