Long Island Severe Weather Threat Thursday
Long Island Severe Weather Threat Thursday
Lately on Long Island a threat for severe weather has meant absolutely nothing since everything seems to fall apart long before it gets here. It is almost as if Long Island has a boiler plate over it where storms go everywhere around it but right over it. Thursday we will try it yet again as the Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service puts us in a marginal risk for severe weather.
Long Island Severe Weather Threat Thursday
HRRR MODEL 5AM THURSDAY
With the arrivial of tropical air there could be a few downpours between 4am and 9am Thursday but the HRRR model is completely unimpressive with this idea showing just some scattered showers and thunderstorms around through 5am
The threat for severe weather will come between 4pm and 7pm Thursday. The NAM model is going in a stronger direction on the last run of the model but it isn’t exactly gangbusters with the thunderstorm line.
Long Island Severe Weather Threat Thursday
NAM MODEL 5PM THURSDAY
Now I want to point out that short term models don’t always do well with thunderstorms so I’m viewing whatever I see with caution. However the atmosphere will be unstable tomorrow afternoon and evening and the dew points will be quite high, into the 70s in most places. Lifted indexes which measure how unstable the atmosphere is showing readings of -4 and -5 which is very unstable Last Wednesday night’s severe weather we had lifted index readings of -6 to -7 in most areas. Close enough in my view to go ahead with the idea that maybe the boiler plate over Long Island may finally break Thursday afternoon.
Long Island Severe Weather Threat Thursday
LATEST RADAR LOOPS
READ MORE ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
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