Sunday Looks Good
Memorial Day Rain
Another very good day is on tap for Long Island on Sunday with sunshine or at least no worse than partly sunny skies for much of the day. Once again temperatures will rise into the 80s and then fall back in the mid to late afternoon as the sea breeze takes control. East End and South Shore temperatures will top in the 70s again. Unfortunately the nice weather for the holiday weekend ends. Tropical Storm Bonnie will be straddling the South Carolina shoreline on Sunday. While the actual center of the tropical storm will remain in coastal South Carolina, the tropical moisture with it will fan out northward and hook up with an approaching cold front. No rain is forecast through Sunday evening. I’m thinking any rain of consequence holds off until after midnight.
Then it is rain into early afternoon Monday Memorial Day. Rain should being to end from west to east Monday afternoon but latest model trends are slower with getting the rain out of the way especially as you head east. Monday’s highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s because of the rain.
Memorial Day Rain GFS MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST
The GFS model is particularly aggressive with rainfall from this while the NAM model which is usually the most aggressive model (and most wrong) has about 1/2 the rainfall.
Memorial Day Rain NAM MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST
I think given the fact that models have over produced and reality has underperformed, I’m going to split the difference between the two and go for about 1/2 inch of rain with some locally higher amounts. The wild card will be how much tropical moisture actually gets involved and drawn this far north. So enjoy your Sunday and we will try to figure this out later on.
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