POWERFUL DEVELOPING STORM TO IMPACT LONG ISLAND SUNDAY

POWERFUL DEVELOPING STORM IMPACT LONG ISLAND SUNDAY

No question from the overnight weather model cycle as all weather models show a powerful east coast storm developing off the Southeast Coast of the US and then moving northward and intensifying rapidly. This system may wind up absorbing a tropical system coming out of the Northwest Caribbean in the process but it really doesn’t matter as this is going to have some very strong dynamics in the upper atmosphere.

As far as the short range forecast is concerned we are still dealing with this stalled front just offshore and Central and Eastern Long Island did see some rain from this overnight. However we are finally getting a push we need from the upper atmosphere and weather conditions should slowly begin to improve over Long Island from west to east as today wears on. Highs will be into the 60s. Then skies should clear tonight with lows in the 40s to near 50.

SATELLITE LOOP

REGIONAL RADAR

Radar still continues to bring heavy rains to much of Connecticut and Southeastern New England where it was very much needed. There is nothing much to worry about on the radar to the south and west.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA

Friday and Saturday look like two very good days with lots of sunshine. Highs Friday will be in the 60s and highs Saturday in the upper 60s to near 70.

WEATHER MODELS SHOW POWERFUL EAST COAST STORM SUNDAY

Both the European model and the GFS model show a powerful storm Sunday evening with the European about 60 to 90 miles to the west of the GFS. This system will have some of its roots from a tropical system that will develop in the Northwest Caribbean on Friday and Saturday before it gets absorbed by low pressure that develops off the Southeast US coast. Heavy rain would be a given from this though it will be moving rather quickly.

GFS RAINFALL FORECAST

Track is going to be key to outcome for wind and rain obviously. The European has the far more problematic track as it moves it northward right along the immediate coast with a wider area of 2 to 4 inch rains. As far as the wind is concerned, this may be more of an issues after the low goes by and winds shift to the northwest. The winds may actually wind up being stronger after the low goes to our north rather than before though there will be gales developing during Sunday from the Southeast and east before going around to the northwest Sunday night.

We will expand more on this later today as the new model run cycle begins in a few hours.