Questions Remain Regarding Sunday’s Coastal Storm
Questions Remain Regarding Sunday’s Coastal Storm
There are still lots of questions regarding Sunday’s coastal storm at many levels including track and depth. This is all going to play a role in just exactly what we can expect. At this point even if it winds up being a worst case scenario of an intense low tracking to our west, it will be fast and it WILL NOT BE ANOTHER SANDY. Apparently this has to be said now on a regular basis anytime we get a coastal low with rain and a puff of wind. That said it could be a stormy time from Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. From the stand point of tides, at least we are in a first quarter moon phase so that helps hold back the coastal flooding issue. Also the fast movement probably limits any issues to 1 high tide cycle. We will have more on this Friday as we get a sense of where models are going with all this.
Tonight’s satellite loop finally shows the offshore weather front moving away to the northeast. Some showers on the radar that developed this afternoon are sinking southeastward and offshore. it won’t be long before skies clear out tonight.
With clear skies and winds relatively light temperatures will drop down into the low and mid 40s and even some 30s in the Pine Barrens in Suffolk County. Friday and Saturday look like two nice days overall with sunshine. Highs will reach the 60s Friday and upper 60s to near 70 on Saturday.
FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST LOWS
Weather conditions will deteriorate on Sunday with rain moving in. A cold front will be moving across Pennsylvania while low pressure develops off the Southeast coast of the US and moves northward. There is still a lot of uncertainty in terms of how this all plays out. Weather models are having all sorts of issues today regarding depth and track and this will have to be resolved in the next 2 days. While the potential is there for a stormy Sunday & Sunday night, there are ways where this winds up being less of an issue.
Take the NAM model from late this afternoon as it shows a deep though less deep upper air profile than the European model. It suggests that the northern system behind it may overwhelm the flow somewhat and have this system take longer to intensify. The track on the NAM was quite a bit further to the east than earlier today. I don’t necessarily believe this but it does illustrate how this might not reach up to its full potential. We still have all of tomorrow and Saturday to see which way this will fall.
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