Snow Long Island Monday Morning Tough Forecast Call

The Passover Easter holiday weekend is underway and at least we know that through midnight tomorrow night there are no weather issues other than the passing of a weak cold front early Sunday morning. With that front there could be a passing brief shower or two around or just before daybreak before it goes mostly sunny by mid morning. The rest of the day will be fine. Highs Sunday will be in the 50s and there will be a bit of a gusty wind into the late afternoon. That is the easy part of the forecast. On the satellite you can cloud to the west with an active cold front. However that front weakens as it moves east.

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We will soon see some showers coming into range on the radar but they will start to thin out as we move through the night.

Now comes the tough part of the forecast and that is from the period of Monday morning. From 3am until 10am we are going to see snow and it will come down hard enough to accumulate. Weather models are producing on average about 1/2 inch of liquid. This would translate to 5 to 6 inches of snow on a 10-1 ratio. However how much falls before sunrise and after sunrise will make a difference. Anything that falls overnight will stick on cold surfaces and most road pavement except perhaps in areas that area more urbanized. The RGEM model is showing the heavy snow band over Long Island Monday morning indicating a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow.

RGEM MONDAY APRIL 2 2018 8AM

Then during the last few hours of this system the sun angle will tend to melt some of the snow away. I’m thinking that we have the potential for several inches of snow accumulation. Remember the time of year will likely make most if not all of the snow disappear by the end of the day. Also bear in mind that Long Island is known for its upside surprises as was the case through 3 of the 4 noreasters in March. This is at best a 6 hour event. Once it is done, look for some sunshine to develop in the afternoon with temperatures shooting back up through the 40s.