Ugly Week Ahead Long Island Noreaster Threat
Ugly Week Ahead Long Island Noreaster Threat
Rain Sunday-Tuesday
Noreaster Possibility Thursday
Dry air from New England at least managed its way southward and is giving Long Island a rather beautiful afternoon of sunshine however things are about to change in a hurry. The swirl on the satellite loop to the west is the rain that is heading this way for Sunday and Monday. It will come in 2 surges with the first surge of rain during the day Sunday followed by another round late Sunday night into Monday afternoon.
The regional radar is just beginning to pick up on the first round of rain and you can see the echos appearing well to the west. This will all spread eastward this evening. No rain however will fall this evening or through much of tonight however it will be here for day break.
Ugly Week Ahead Long Island Noreaster Threat
NAM MODEL SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE MAP
Ugly Week Ahead Long Island Noreaster Threat
NAM MODEL SUNDAY EVENING SURFACE
The first surge of rain should taper off late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening before the main low moves through on Monday with surge number 2. Once that come to an end during Monday afternoon there will be a break. But then a third surge of rain arrives later Monday night into Tuesday.
Ugly Week Ahead Long Island Noreaster Threat
NAM MODEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
From the standpoint of total rainfall from the 3 events, it should beneficial but right now it does not appear to be excessive and that given it is falling over 3 days it should have ample time to soak into the ground. I’m not expecting any flooding issues at the moment. It appears to be on the order of 1 to 2 inches overall.
Ugly Week Ahead Long Island Noreaster Threat
NAM MODEL TOTAL 3 DAY RAINFALL
Now beyond Tuesday all the weather models are pointing toward a diving upper air disturbance which intensifies and cuts off over the Middle Atlantic States which forces a storm to develop along the east coast. Weather models are coming at this in all different directions with the Euro model pointing to a very intense noreaster just off shore late this week.
Ugly Week Ahead Long Island Noreaster Threat
Euro Model Surface 8pm Thursday
If this happens it will coincide with the full moon so there will be the potential for coastal flooding issues. For now we remain in speculative mode on this idea and we will wait to see how this afternoon’s Euro model handles all this. It should be noted that it has been rather inconsistent lately so confidence right now is not high on this idea.
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