Warm Humid Into The Weekend Long Island Monitoring Tropical Storm Henri
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Warm Humid Into The Weekend Long Island Monitoring Tropical Storm Henri
Now that the remnant low of Tropical Storm Fred is far enough north and northeast of Long Island, we are seeing sunshine breaking out leaving us in a very warm and humid afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 80s just about everywhere. I will throw in a small chance for a pop up shower or thunderstorm but the chances are very low.
SATELLITE
To the northeast is the back edge of Fred’s rains moving through Eastern Massachusetts while to the west and south we don’t see much action at all and there are no severe weather risks indicated by the Storm Prediction Center. Henri on the satellite is undergoing wind shear from the northeast which accounts for its stretched out northeast southwest shape. That shear will keep it from strengthening until Friday when the shear is forecast to weaken.
WEATHER RADAR
A warm humid night lies ahead with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Friday we will see some sunshine and Saturday we will also see some sunshine for most of the day. Highs both days will be in the 80s and there is a the chance for a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm on either day.
TROPICAL STORM HENRI
Sunday into Monday is the risk period for Tropical Storm Henri. So far today with the weather model cycle we haven’t seen too much change in the way this evolves. Some models have edged left (west). Some have edged to the right (east). This all comes down to a ridge of high pressure aloft that builds in Northern New England and Southeastern Canada and a cut off upper low in the Central Appalachians with Henri getting wedged somewhere in between. Here are some things to bear in mind.
A track to the EAST of Long Island (like today’s GFS model shows) will have limited impact Yes it could get a little breezy or even windy over the East End. Sunday is a full moon so that could mean tidal issues. However with a track to the east we would have a northerly wind. This will put the south shore of Long Island in a good position to avoid any coastal flooding. The North Shore could see some tidal flooding however with the wind coming in from that particular direction. Rain would be minimal if any at all and confined to the East End assuming that Henri tracks northward along or just to the west of 70 degrees west.
A track further WEST as shown byt today’s NAM is more problematic clearly especially if we are talking about a storm that wants to cross Long Island. Conditions on the east side are going to be different from those on the west side.
The map above shows the probability of gale force winds Sunday evening and this is based on a storm tracking about 75 to 100 miles east of Montauk. The East End probability of gales is obviously higher. Notice that the wind direction is north or even northwest. This is a manageable situation as long as the storm is offshore. The differences in the model tracks continue today so there isn’t much new we can add regarding confidence in any forecast here. I’m leaning to the idea that the track will be just to the east of Long Island keeping impacts limited. Also it is highly likely that the relatively cooler ocean at our latitude will help to weaken any hurricane that approaches. In the end we won’t know much more until perhaps Saturday. Sunday into Sunday night and Monday morning is the risk time frame. There are no issues for Friday or Saturday and Saturday night that are Henri related. Stay tuned for latest updates.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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